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Kamala Harris quickly rallied Democrats to her candidacy after Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
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Support for Harris has eclipsed that of Biden over the past month.
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But a recently released Times/Siena poll reminds us that the 2024 race remains undecided.
Vice President Kamala Harris has dazzled Democrats as the party’s new presidential nominee.
After President Joe Biden has moved away As the presumptive nominee in July, the party quickly rallied around her. And any concerns about her disappointing 2020 presidential campaign have been largely allayed.
Her popularity ratings soared among potential voters. She quickly rallied the Democratic base and saw her support increase among independents, which helped her carve out a niche in the party. Polls lead in key states in recent weeks. And last week, the Harris campaign announced that it had raised $361 million in August alone, nearly three times the $130 million former President Donald Trump earned in the same month.
Yet, to remind us just how volatile American elections can be, a new report released New York Times/Siena College Poll According to polls, Trump has a one-point lead over Harris among likely voters. The poll could indicate that Harris’ momentum has stalled or that she is an outlier. More polls in the coming days will tell us more, as will Tuesday’s presidential debate.
What is certain is that most of the complexities of the 2024 race never went away after Biden dropped out of the race. Here’s why the race remains a real puzzle at this late stage.
A race within the margin of error
Despite a series of polls showing Harris with the edge in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, the leads are generally in the single digits and within the margin of error.
The latest Times national poll showed Trump with 48 percent support among likely voters, compared to 47 percent for Harris.
THE the result is unchanged According to a Times national survey conducted in July.
Some important figures emerge from the latest Times poll.
Harris received the majority support from voters under 45. She did best among voters ages 30 to 44, winning that group by a nine-point margin (51% to 42%). At the same time, Trump led Gen X and voters ages 65 and older by a 10-point margin.
For Harris, turning out younger voters will be key as she seeks to win traditional swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and hold onto Sun Belt battlegrounds like Arizona and Nevada. Harris’ appeal to younger voters is a big reason she was able to put North Carolina back in play for Democrats, a far cry from where it was three months ago, when Biden struggled there.
In the Times poll, Harris also had a 10-point lead (52 percent to 42 percent) among suburban voters, a significant show of support that could make a huge difference if she can extend that advantage over her GOP rival.
Despite Trump’s lead in the Times survey, the former president’s woes in the suburbs are perhaps one of the biggest threats to his campaign, as they would likely hamper his ability to win in a critical swing state like Pennsylvania.
