A Wall Street analyst just predicted that Nvidia would reach a market capitalization of $10 trillion. Is this really possible?

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been one of the best stories in the market with the stock up over 3,300% in the last five years. This is an incredible progression that brought its market capitalization to $2.8 trillion.

However, a Wall Street analyst recently predicted that the stock will have a lot more room to run in the coming years. I/O Fund’s Beth Kindig boldly predicts the chipmaker will reach a $10 trillion valuation by 2030.

Let’s examine the reasons for his prediction and whether such a decision is possible.

Blackwell and the automobile to stimulate growth

Much of Kindig’s thesis around Nvidia is about accelerating the company’s growth. graphics processing unit (GPU) release schedule, with new product iterations arriving every year rather than every two years. This doubles the already rapid pace of innovation and essentially pits the company’s new technology against its old technology. Either way, Nvidia wins.

Kindig is also very excited about Nvidia’s new Blackwell platform. She noted that although Nvidia’s Hopper platform has helped Nvidia reach $100 billion in annual sales in the data center segment, Blackwell will bring that total annual revenue to $200 billion. by the end of fiscal 2026. It sees Nvidia maintaining its grip on the data center segment. artificial intelligence (AI) data center market in the coming years. It expects the data center market to reach $400 billion by 2027 and $1 trillion by 2030.

Outside of the data center, the technology analyst sees the automotive market as the next big area of ​​opportunity for Nvidia. This segment is tiny at this point, but Kindig believes it’s another potential $300 billion opportunity that will begin to grow in the next two to five years.

Kindig expects Nvidia to continue to maintain its massive market share due to the gap it has created with its CUDA software platform. She noted that AI developers are learning to program GPUs on the CUDA platform, which helps lock customers into the Nvidia ecosystem.

Image source: Getty Images.

Can Nvidia’s market cap really hit $10 trillion by 2030?

For Nvidia to reach $400 billion in revenue by 2027 (its trailing 12-month revenue was about $80 billion), it would need to increase its revenue by about 50 % per year from 2025 to 2027. From this $400 billion level, to get to $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, the company would need to increase its revenue by approximately 35% per year from 2028 to 2030.

If the company’s adjusted operating expenses grew by an average of 13% quarter over quarter through 2030 (similar to last quarter’s sequential growth) and we applied a tax rate of 20 % of its operating profit, Nvidia could be on track to generate $450 billion in adjusted profit. by 2030. With a market capitalization of $10 trillion, the stock would only have a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times. This would still make the stock look cheap.

These assumptions, which certainly reflect very robust growth estimates, are also certainly not out of the question given Nvidia’s recent revenue growth. The company has a dominant position in the GPU space and at present…

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