Yahoo!’s consensus player rankings are great. I don’t mean to say that, I would happily recommend that anyone use the lists provided as a guide for their draft. But when I created my projections for the 2024 season—an exercise I’ve been doing for over 25 years—there were a few players that I felt were undervalued relative to the team’s consensus rankings. Here are the players I would target if I were to draft based on Yahoo!’s rankings.
Strategist
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Yahoo Consensus: QB10 Fred: QB5
I’ll let the numbers do the talking. Going back to 2023, here are Prescott’s passing yard totals, extrapolated to 17 games, over the last five seasons: 4,516, 4,052, 4,727, 6,310, 4,902. And here are his passing touchdown totals, extrapolated to 17 games, over the last five seasons: 36, 33, 37, 31, 32. With their current cap space for RBs, the Cowboys have no choice but to remain a pass-heavy team, and as we can see from the last five years of data, the reasonable expectation for Prescott is 4,500 yards and 33 TDs.
Do you know how many players achieved both of these goals last season? Only one: Dak.
Last year, he led the Cowboys to an NFL-record 509 points, and with all due respect to Tony Pollard, Prescott hasn’t lost his key weapons (assuming CeeDee Lamb signs a long-term deal soon). Prescott is a great combination of high floor and high ceiling.
Running backs
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Yahoo Consensus: RB26 Fred: RB18
Warren is an efficient rusher (5.1 career yards per carry) who is also a key part of the Steelers’ passing attack. While Najee Harris should lead the team in carries, Warren can match last year’s total of 149 carries in Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense. And he can match his 2023 total of 61 receptions in an offense that currently only has George Pickens (more on that later) as its dominant target.
Matching his 2023 production appears to be Warren’s floor, and there’s a chance he could surpass Harris, who has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over his three-year career and is not under contract for 2025.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Yahoo Consensus: RB28 Fred: RB23
My enthusiasm for Spears is based on the simple premise that he is significantly younger and better than Tony Pollard. Spears looked dynamic in his rookie year, averaging 4.5 yards per carry behind a mediocre offensive line while totaling 52 receptions. Pollard, meanwhile, disappointed the Cowboys so much that they had to turn to what was left of Ezekiel Elliott.
At worst, Spears should share the carries while also picking up plenty of passing work in an offense that should focus on the air after the loss of Derrick Henry. There’s a good chance Spears will have left Pollard in the dust by the middle of the season.
Wide receivers
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Yahoo Consensus: WR19 Fred: WR12
Waddle felt like a disappointment last year, but adding his yards per game average (72.4) to his…
