Sometimes it’s all about the moves you make. don’t do it TO DO.
For over 25 years, I’ve spent a good chunk of the offseason creating my own projections. My 2024 projections are firmly in place, and several players rank much lower in my final analysis than in Yahoo!’s consensus rankings. These guys won’t be anywhere near my 2024 rosters, and I encourage you to take a second look at them before clicking on their names in your draft.
Yahoo Ranking:QB7 against. My ranking: QB10
I have no problem selecting Murray as the bottom-of-the-line QB1 this year, but I’m also realistic about what he has (and hasn’t) accomplished in his first five seasons. The Oklahoma alum has never thrown for 4,000 yards and has a career-high 26 TD passes. On the run side, he produced memorable numbers in 2020 (819 yards, 11 scores) but hasn’t reached 500 yards or topped five TDs in any other season.
Murray has a good arsenal at his disposal this season, but this group still isn’t among the best in the NFL. I don’t see the logic in ranking him ahead of Jordan Love, who was a bomb in his first year as a starter, or Dak Prescott, who was a premier passer for multiple seasons. And ranking Murray ahead of Joe Burrow makes me think we’ve forgotten how good Burrow is.
Running backs
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Yahoo Ranking:RB4 against. My ranking: RB10
Taylor should finish among the 2024 leaders in rushing yards, but beyond that component of fantasy production, there are plenty of factors working against him. The 25-year-old has never been a great pass catcher (a career-high 40 receptions), and plenty of data shows that speedy QBs like Anthony Richardson reduce RBs’ passing volume due to their penchant for using their feet rather than releasing the ball when their primary options are covered.
Richardson is also sure to be able to emulate Taylor in the red zone, as he has both the size and speed to emulate Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at the goal line. With Taylor’s high ADP, managers should demand that their running backs be more involved in the passing game and near the end zone.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Yahoo Ranking:RB29 against. My ranking: RB34
Robinson is a poor version of Taylor, and his name is on this list for the same reasons. Projected to be Washington’s No. 1 running back, Robinson has good upside. But his upside is too low to be pursued in the mid-rounds of drafts. The 25-year-old hasn’t reached 800 rushing yards in his first two seasons and is averaging 4.0 yards per carry.
Robinson will need to improve significantly as a rusher to make a fantasy impact since the Commanders brought in Austin Ekeler for pass-catching duties and speedy rookie QB Jayden Daniels is more likely to take off and run than drop the ball to his…