US economy surges: GDP growth hits 2.8% in second quarter

Labor market

The labor market showed signs of resilience, with initial jobless claims declining by 10,000 to 235,000 for the week ending July 20. The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, edged up by 250 to 235,500. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%, while continuing claims declined by 9,000 to 1,851,000. The four-week moving average of continuing claims increased to 1,853,500, reaching its highest level since December 2021.

Durable goods orders

Durable goods orders presented a mixed picture in June. New orders for manufactured durable goods fell significantly by 6.6% to $264.5 billion, ending a streak of four consecutive monthly increases. The decline was driven primarily by a 20.5% drop in orders for transportation equipment.

However, excluding the volatile transportation sector, core durable goods orders actually rose 0.5%, indicating some underlying strength in manufacturing demand. Excluding defense orders, new orders fell 7.0%.

Conclusion

These reports paint a picture of a moderately growing economy, with some sectors strong and others showing potential signs of slowdown. Accelerating GDP growth and a stable labor market suggest overall economic resilience, while the mixed durable goods report and the slight increase in the four-week average of jobless claims warrant continued monitoring. Moderating inflation indicators may provide some relief to policymakers, but the overall economic landscape remains complex and subject to a variety of internal and external factors.