US President Joe Biden laughs during the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) dinner in Washington, DC, United States, Saturday, April 27, 2024. The annual dinner raises funds for the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) scholarships WHCA and to honor the recipients of the organization’s journalism awards. Credit – Bonnie Cash-UPI/Bloomberg/Getty Images
IIn recent months, we have heard a lot about President Biden’s speech. low poll numbers and Americans negative views of the economy. It is therefore not surprising that many media pundits have rushed to to entertain the idea of a Trump victory in 2024.
Let’s start with some obvious caveats to keep in mind.
First, a significant part of Biden’s approval delay is due derived from his own party: since 2022, between 15 and 22 percent of Democrats have neglected to express their approval for Biden. The current crisis in the Middle East, which has put President Biden at odds with many members of the Democratic base, probably allowed this disapproval to harden even further. But come Election Day, these disgruntled Democrats — along with many independents — will likely look at Biden a little differently as the prospect of another Trump presidency looms.
A second fairly obvious caveat is that with inflation to have cooled down much over the past two years, Americans’ feelings about the economy have improved quite spectacularly, which can only improve Biden’s chances going forward.
But there is an even more fundamental caveat, and it is surprisingly overlooked. Simply put, the fact that Biden has been in office for just one term imported. A lot.
The story repeats itself ? The 2012 case
In September 2011, President Barack Obama was in trouble. His endorsement was virtually identical to Biden’s current one, hovering around 40%. Views on the economy were extremely negative and the polls found Obama losing to one of the Republican contenders then in the lead, Mitt Romney. On the eve of the 2012 elections, at least a respected survey Romney narrowly led Obama.
It seemed clear that Americans were ready for a change.
But that’s not the change that happened. Obama handily won both parties’ vote share (that is, the total number of votes won by the Democratic Party and Republican Party candidates) by about 4 percentage points.
Taking into account the opinions of political scientists research Regarding the US presidential elections, no one should have been surprised by this result. For what? Because in November 2012, Obama was the incumbent president, just like Biden will be in November 2024.
The power of mandate
Every presidential election seems unique, but the data doesn’t lie. My recent researchconditionally accepted into the peer-reviewed journal, Research and methods in political scienceexamines every presidential election since 1952. Despite all the different candidates, national priorities, international challenges, economic conditions, etc. Over the past 72 years, incumbents have won the popular vote 78% of the time.
These outgoing candidates have…
