It’s rare for a presidential candidate to be on his way to the White House, with unexpected developments known to derail momentum.
While President Biden and former President Trump easily clinched their parties’ nominations and the race largely went as expected, a game-changing situation – or two – could shake up the race in the six months leading up to the November elections.
Several problems are already brewing, from the global crises being handled by the White House to Trump’s legal problems.
Here are five possible twists and turns that could shake up the presidential race in the coming months.
Health problems force Biden and Trump out of race
Biden, at 81, and Trump, who will be 78 on Election Day, are the two oldest presumptive nominees of a major party in U.S. history.
While rumors among commentators that the parties would choose someone else have largely died down, a health event sidelining one or both candidates before November does not seem inconceivable.
Both candidates emphasized their ability to serve as president amid questions about their physical and mental health.
In February, Biden’s doctor wrote, following a physical exam of the president, that he was “fit for duty» and has no new health problems.
Trump’s doctor published a letter in November, saying he was in “excellent health,” his labs were within “normal health limits” and his cognitive tests were “exceptional.” But the letter was very vague and did not provide specific details about what the labs showed.
Neither has a publicly diagnosed serious health issue, but a major medical event remains a possibility for both men, as even younger presidents have experienced in the past.
Wider international conflict erupts
International unrest is already the backdrop to the presidential race, with two major conflicts underway. And even if American troops do not engage directly in either conflict, the political impact is visible.
The Biden administration had been pushing congressional Republicans to approve additional financial support for Ukraine in its war against Russia for months before the vote. aid program adopted last month.
At the same time, Biden faces a delicate situation with the war in the Middle East, which has heightened tensions within his coalition starting in 2020. Protests have erupted on college campuses in recent weeks to oppose to maintain financial aid to Israel.
Critics also organized an effort to vote “no strings attached” as a protest against Biden in the Democratic primaries.
So far, these two conflicts have not directly involved the United States. But if they were to spill over – if Russia were to attack a NATO country, for example, or if Iran were to become more involved in the war between Israel and Hamas – direct military participation might be deemed necessary.
This type of development could boost or dampen Biden’s campaign depending on public opinion on the conflict.
